Media Appearances

Is China Finally Ready to Deal with Trump?

Prior to Mr. Xi’s agreement this morning to meet with Mr. Trump next week, the always interesting Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics had predicted that Beijing would come back to the table because of a “game changer” in the negotiations.…

America needs safe, reliable borders

FOX Business’ Trish Regan, Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz and economist Donald Luskin discuss the crisis at the southern border.

Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind

It’s worth noting that the Fair model is hardly alone in its forecast. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the…

In Trump They Trust?

Meanwhile Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics generally sees the art of the deal: "Just because we are seeing such things now does not mean the deal is falling apart. To be sure, it might mean that. Mistakes can happen. But…

Has the Recession Been Cancelled?

Let’s not go overboard. As Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics points out, beneath today’s headline GDP number, growth in consumer spending and business investment was not as strong as we’d like. But overall the economy continues to show a remarkable…

Global recession possible if US, China can’t play nice: TrendMacro CIO

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin said that the trade talks between the world's two largest economies are vital to the global economy.  "This is simply the biggest negotiation that's ever happened in the history of the world," he told FOX Business' Liz MacDonald on "The…

How Trump is on track for a 2020 landslide

“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when…

Lyft IPO: Should investors steer clear?

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin and Patriarch Organization CEO Eric Schiffer on whether investors should be cautious about buying Lyft and the problems surrounding the tech sector.

Will corporate earnings spark another market rally?

Raymond James chief investment strategist Jeff Saut and TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discuss how earnings will affect the U.S. market and whether investors should be concerned about special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.

What’s driving the US market?

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin and Belpointe chief strategist David Nelson on the state of the U.S. stock market and whether people should invest in China.

US-China trade deal optimism lift stocks

Trendmacro CEO Donald Luskin says President Trump’s optimistic approach towards a U.S-China trade resolution is helping the markets.

How will the Fed shape the markets?

Investors are turning their attention to this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. How will the markets react? TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin and Erin Gibbs of S&P Investment Advisory Services with more.

Investing tips: Buy the dips, market expert says

Investors remain on edge as earnings woes raise fears over global growth. Will the markets re-test December lows? Erin Gibbs of S&P Investment Advisory Services, TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin and Efficient Advisors CIO Larry Shover weigh in.

President Obama was not good for our economy: Trish Regan

FBN’s Trish Regan, TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin and former Reagan economic adviser Art Laffer discuss how former President Barack Obama tried to take credit for the booming U.S. economy.

Human Extinction: Hot Again

All of this suggests that the communist who runs China has no interest in embracing freer trade with the United States. But Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics argues that to avoid an economic calamity and resulting social unrest, Mr. Xi…

The Trade Canary

The job market has been strong, and small business confidence remains high, but those tend to be lagging indicators. With the world economy showing strains, the chances of a significant U.S. growth slowdown can no longer be ruled out. We’d…

Stocks jump to record highs as US reaches trade deal with Mexico

Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro, discusses the left wing media’s attacks against the current state of the economy, how Democrats have criticized President Trump’s tax policy and the U.S., Mexico trade deal.

Does Premature Expostulation Hurt Anyone?

There is a reason Jason Furman didn’t cite any specifics to back up his claim that “financial markets reacted” to President Trump’s tweet about Friday’s jobs report “with unusual volatility for the early morning hours” (“The Economic Risks of Trump’s…

The Trump Scoreboard

…Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics wrote to clients about Mr. Trump’s plan for new tariffs—essentially taxes on steel and aluminum consumers: "Trump’s economic record has been excellent, and we draw assurance from that. But the very fact that this is…

Fed Should Unwind Its Asset Portfolio Quickly

The Wall Street Journal editorial page has always been appropriately skeptical of the claims of former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke during the quantitative-easing era. So there’s no reason, today, to let his dubious rationales for QE be a basis…

The Tax-Reform Stock Rally

…We’ve been hosting an op-ed debate on stock prices, and last week financial consultant Donald Luskin made his case for the running of the bulls as expected corporate earnings are adjusted upward due to tax reform. Harvard economist Martin Feldstein…

Tax Reform Take 2: The States

But the tax math will be tricky for many high-earners in states with the highest tax rates. The bill reduces the top federal tax rate to 37% from 39.6% and increases the threshold at which it kicks in to $600,000…

Jones’ win adds urgency to GOP tax push

Donald Luskin, chief investment officer for Trend Macrolytics, said that Republican Roy Moore’s loss in Alabama will be a big incentive for Republican leaders to “drive the negotiations to a conclusion.” “It makes more urgent the need for the GOP…

Trump, Pershing and Persuasion

Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics wrote to clients this morning about the aftermath of Charlottesville: "We think it’s a clinical case of mass hysteria – and one of the strangest we’ve ever seen. It’s not about the event itself. It’s…

Dow closes above 22,000 for first time, as bull run charges on

"Don't let the milestones cause you to miss the simple underlying story: corporate earnings are at all-time highs. So stocks are at all-time highs," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro in Chicago. That's how it is supposed to…

Dow 22K and the ‘Trump Infamy Ecosystem’

…Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics thinks Mr. Trump has every right to take credit for rising markets. In a note to clients this week he acknowledges the view of many investors that “all of the pro-growth hopes and dreams that…

Trump’s Blue State Revival Plan

As our friend Donald Luskin has pointed out, the Schumer Democrats have no standing to stop Republicans from eliminating the blue state tax benefit if they sit out the debate. The GOP only has an incentive to deal if Mr.…

Not Great Enough

Today’s jobs report might seem perfect in the context of recent years. But Mr. Trump wants Reagan-style growth, not Obama- or Bush-style job creation. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics writes in a note to clients today that while this morning’s…

Is a Border-Adjustment Tax a Key to Reform?

It’s disappointing that Martin Feldstein, once the champion of Reaganomics, would now need to defend the House GOP’s border-adjustment scheme by arguing that it is necessary for “cutting the corporate tax rate—and stimulating economic growth—without a major increase in the…

What Do We Want the Federal Reserve to Do?

I’m surprised by the naiveté of Mr. Luskin in assuming that Republicans welcome a (truly) more objective rule in setting interest rates. Consider that in December 2016 the newly appointed (January 2017) Vice Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Monetary…

What It’s Like for People Named Donald Who Aren’t Donald Trump

In the course of my hunt for Donalds, I happened to connect with Donald Luskin, a Chicago-based economic strategist who supported Trump in the election. His firm, TrendMacro, was by his estimation one of the earliest predictors of a Trump…

Dow 20,000 is nice, but here’s what to watch

The S&P 500 — and not the Dow — is also the performance benchmark that money managers are compared against, adds Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. “A pro is only interested in what benchmark he is trying to…

Trump right to question GOP tax plan

The Journal article also indicated that “retailers and oil refiners have lined up against the measure, warning it would drive up their tax bills and force them to raise prices.” It also reported that Koch Industries “last month said the…

Market Math: Do stock valuations matter in Trump World?

“When there is a quantum shift in growth expectations, the arithmetic of P-E multiples fails to capture the value in stocks,” argues Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. “Why look at this quarter’s earnings, or for that matter why…

Dow eclipses 19,000 for first time in history

Whether the bullish hype turns out to be the right trade remains to be seen, as Trump has yet to get the keys to the White House or make one of his campaign promises come true. "Whatever else the future…

3 election outcomes that could hurt stocks

…don’t rule out a bear market if Clinton loses, warns Don Luskin, chief investment officer at financial research firm TrendMacro. “If Trump wins … stocks will drop at least 20% just like that,” Luskin told USA TODAY. “Because markets hate to…

Hillary Clinton Targets Tax Hikes at the Very Top

Republicans see the growth in the 1980s and the late 1990s growth after capital gains rate cuts as proof that people are more willing to save, work and invest if they can keep more of what they earn. “When the…

Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman moment?

"Whatever happens with Deutsche Bank, this is not — I repeat, not — a Lehman moment," says Don Luskin, chief investment officer at investment firm TrendMacro. "We are not looking at globally interconnected fragility like we were in 2008. And if anything goes wrong at all,…

What Republican turncoats forget

…the Trump haters say we must throw Mr. Trump over the bus in order to save the Senate and House majorities.This is a foolhardy strategy because one can’t win without the other. As economist Donald Luskin puts it in his…

Why Wall Street’s yawning after Trump’s plan

Says Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro: “Trump’s plan has been up on his website for many months. There is nothing new about it at all. Everyone is acting as though he ‘finally’ laid out his ‘plan’ for ‘the…

The price of panic: Missing the rebound rally

"The key lesson is that when bond yields are so persistently low, there is really no sensible place for money to go except for stocks," says Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "That puts a safety net under stocks, and events…

Trump Didn’t Win on a Pro-Growth Agenda

If only Mr. Trump were as eloquent in expressing his goals and objectives as Mr. Luskin, what a difference it could make for America.

Trump’s Path to Victory

Donald Luskin, TrendMacro, discusses Trump's stance on trade and what it will take to make America grow again.

Dow, at risk of 4th down week in row, up 120

"We don't believe it will happen," Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, told clients in a note titled "Is the Fed Stuck On Stupid?" Adds Luskin: "We still think no hike until December, and probably not even then. There's…

Yellen rally hits day 2, sending stocks to 2016 highs

"Yellen is effectively admitting that 'liftoff' was an error," Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, noted in a report to clients before the opening bell. "It's one and done until the environment changes substantially.

Crude Cause and Effect

We speak with Luskin about how the dramatic drop in crude oil prices has affected the global economy and how it will likely affect it in the future. 

The Leap of Trump

Financial analyst and our contributor Donald Luskin has described Donald Trump as a "black swan" over the political economy. He's referring to an outlier event that few anticipated and whose impact is impossible to predict. As the voting season begins…

Upside to market downside: less frothy P-Es

"The current very strong relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds puts a safety net under how far equities can fall," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "There's a natural hedge here. More panic in China should drive long-term…

Establishment Food Fight

I said people were going to anticipate the end of the Obama era. I didn't say it was going to happen in the first week of the year. This was obviously the roughest week in equity markets. But Donald Luskin…

Wall Street builds case for year-end stock rally

"Many of the headwinds that sparked the U.S. stock market's biggest swoon since 2011 are no longer weighing down the market like they did earlier this year, says Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "The big August correction was caused by the…

Tokyo markets sharply down amid global worries

"We went three years, two months and 21 days without a 10% correction in the (S&P 500), says Don Luskin, market strategist at TrendMacro. "It was overdue. That doesn't make it a bear market."

China’s woes could complicate Fed rate plans

"China's move highlights the fragility of the global economy, and the Fed is always inclined toward a 'safety first' attitude — so in the absence of any compelling reason to hike rates, this will be just one more reason not…

The trump card the ECB could use on Greece

Greek banks have for months been relying heavily on what is called "emergency liquidity assistance" from the European Central Bank for just more than 80 billion euros ($90 billion). "It's a bit like printing euros for that one national bank,"…

Luskin: Cheap Oil To Spur Another US Housing Boom

I'm saying that, five years from now, if you adjust for today's dollars, we're going to be between $15 and $40. That's been our forecast all along and it still is. However, it takes time for technology to play out.…

Why the CME shutting down floor trading matters

"The Chicago floors were unique social environments that I treasured," said Donald Luskin, who traded on the Chicago Board of Exchange in the early-1980s and would go on to become a respected and veteran investment officer with Wells Fargo and…

ECB: Banks can’t use Greek debt as collateral

The ECB's move is "not as big a deal as it seems," TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin wrote in a note, especially in light of Wednesday morning's announcement that the ECB had authorized Greece's central bank to use "Emergency Liquidity Assistance"…

Dow drops 112 as stocks rollercoaster on oil, ruble

Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, says the bad market action tied to sinking oil prices will eventually play out and exhaust itself. "The instabilities are upon us — in spades; the big losers are identifying themselves," says Luskin.…

Stocks plunge late in the day as Dow drops 223 points

The geographic shift of the Ebola crisis to U.S. soil in recent days has also put investors on edge, as concern about the spread of the virus and its potential impact on economic growth mounts but with no clear answers…

First take: Did Alibaba IPO mark a top for stocks?

"People waited in line to buy Alibaba because they think CEO Jack Ma is the smartest man in the world," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "Hey, everybody — the guy you think is the smartest man in…

S&P 500 notches first-ever close above 1900

Big round numbers like 1900 are often tough to barrel through easily.. Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, says the recent market weakness is history. "Round numbers are meaningless, but it's meaningful to make all-time highs," says Luskin. "The…

Russia sees ‘serious capital flight,’ economy slows

Fallout from the sanctions — and from Russia's destabilization of Ukraine — could be far-reaching. The worst-case economic scenarios are fairly awful, says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer for Trend Macrolytics. "We think the feasible worst-case is a war of…

S&P 500’s new high: Street parties like it’s 2013

"To have only a 6% correction is a great sign of strength," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "It is telling us that U.S. stocks might have been tired but didn't want to go down. They just took…

Wall Street grapples with Fed power shift, policy

Now that Bernanke has tapered twice in succession and in equal $10 billion increments, it could reduce Yellen's flexibility if circumstances change, warns Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics. "Bernanke has handed Yellen a fait accompli, an established policy trend that…

Irish exports lift as euro zone exits recession

Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist at TrendMacro, a US fund advisory firm, said the euro-area GDP numbers were at odds with ECB lending data, which showed continuing reductions in credit to small and medium- sized companies. Without increasing credit…

Spanish yields and the ECB’s austerity defence

Now we come to what happened at last week's ECB announcement and presser. Most of the subsequent commentary focused on the main refinancing rate cut, the hint of a negative deposit rate, and the commitment to spur lending to small-…

You Should Be Worried If The ECB Just Cuts Rates Tomorrow

In a note put out yesterday, Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics has a slightly contrarian take on what the ECB should do tomorrow. First of all, he does think there will be a rate cut, whereas previously he was…

Fear of run on Europe’s banks

Analyst Lorcan Roche Kelly, of Trend Macrolytics, said Mr Dijsselbloem's comments risked discouraging investment in Europe. ''Any reason anyone should leave more than EUR 100,000 in a euro area bank after [his] comments? Any at all?'' he tweeted.

Explaining ELA

The European Central Bank Thursday…announced that if Cyprus didn't finally iron out a deal with international creditors by Monday, then the ECB would cut off emergency funding to the country's banks. "This is a hard deadline of Monday evening on…

Of credible threats and plans

This is all being played out against the threat of ELA being cut from Monday. …It's worth noting that quite a few of the people we talked to this morning didn't see it that way and expected an eventual fudge.…